缅甸的战争与和平（2018/6月下篇）倡导“全包容”的新彬龙会议包容度遭置疑

果敢资讯网  今天

观察员：王子瑜

6月下旬的缅甸时政有二件事比较值得关注，一件是第38届联合国人权理事会上重点商讨了缅甸违反人权的追责问题，另一件就是一再延期的第三次新彬龙会议终于敲定会期。

21世纪新彬龙会议第三次会议的召开时间一公布，邀请对象便成了各方关注的焦点，因为，7月11日的会期虽然确定，但一些邀请对象却被主办方宣布为“待定”。

大会主办方表示：尚不确定是否邀请AA、TNLA和MNDAA。

笔者以为，主办方表这样的态，是做给军方和中方看的，属于无奈之举。因为，一个积极倡导“全包容”的大会主办方，很难说出“不邀请某组织”这种自打嘴巴的话。很显然，不同意邀请AA、TNLA和MNDAA三组织的态度是来自军方的强硬立场。

军方坚持这个立场是众所周知的，彬龙大会第二次会议召开当时上述被军方排斥的三支民武组织能够出席大会，是在中方强力斡旋下得以实现的。所以笔者才说本次主办方的表态，是给中方看的。如果中方像上一次一样积极促和并保送，那么，AA、TNLA和MNDAA等三家组织参加大会几乎是可以肯定的。反之，中方对缅新彬龙会议的态度若是听之任之，那么，三组织也就没有参加大会的可能了。

另外，主办方这样的表态对FPNCC而言是一次巨大考验，因为，FPNCC成立之初的原则是七家成员组织同进退，如今面对民盟政府和军方的区别对待，参会，或者不参会，就成了两难选择。接受邀请吧，等于自毁FPNCC的原则，拒绝参会吧，则自家组织会被缅方列为不识时务。

政治斗争有时就是这么纠结，很多时候不得为了反对而反对，为了坚持而坚持。虽然大家对第三次彬龙会议解决实质性问题的作用不抱任何希望，但对于能否举办？能否参会？却被当作政治成果。因此，无论是反对还是坚持，其用意无非是表明某种立场和态度而已，而这些态度却又与政治原则和政治操守有关。于是，那些在外人看来似乎无关紧要的坚持，也就成了很重要的政治选择。

缅军方的态度是坚决不以任何形式承认AA、TNLA和MNDAA等三组织的合法性，民盟和大多数政府党的态度却希望通过全包容，跨出民族和解的步。真正阻挠和平进程的人，从中可谓一目了然，军方至今依然不愿意为三组织敞开和平进程大门的事实，一目了然，而平息武装冲突的问题症结也在于此，因为，无意和谈的缅军迟早还是要为了其所谓的“清剿”而大动干戈的。

欧盟于6月25日发布制裁缅军人名单，其中包括第3特战局局长昂觉梭、西部军区司令貌貌索、99师师长丹乌、33师师长昂昂、第15野战旅旅长钦貌梭等高官，缅方的迅速回应是将奉命执行若开清剿任务的西部军区司令貌貌索开除军籍。但是，一些人士对这样的“处理”并不买账。

6月27日一个名为国际特赦组织（AI）的组织呼吁各界制裁以缅军总司令敏昂莱为首的12名涉及若开邦事务的缅军警高官。值得注意的是在缅甸人权问题上，联合国与缅方从一开始的“嘴炮”进入到相对实际的行动阶段。自6月18日开始在日内瓦召开的联合国人权理事会会议，重点研究了是否对缅军方违反人权法和人道主义行为的责任人进行调查和起诉，该会计划于7月6日结束，因此，不排除联全国将会在近期出台一系列更严厉的制裁缅甸的举措。彼时正值新彬龙会议召开前夕，这对处于多事之秋的缅甸而言，无疑于火上加油，这把油倘若浇得好，则有可能迫使缅军方做出大反转的决策，或者，通过这把火从缅军内部烧出个终结缅甸乱局的终结者来，亦未可知。

 War Peace in Myanmar (next issue of June, 2018) the tolerance of the "all-inclusive" New Binglong Conference is called into question.

Kokang information network today

   Observer: Wang Ziyu

 Two things that deserve moreWar Peace in Myanmar (next issue of June, 2018) the tolerance of the "all-inclusive" New Binglong Conference is called into question. attention in the current political situation in Myanmar in late June are that the 38th UN Human Rights Council focused on the issue of accountability for human rights violations in Myanmar, on the other hand, the third New Binglong Conference, which was repeatedly postponed, finally finalised the session. As soon as the time of the third meeting of the New Binglong Conference of the 21st Century was announced, the audience of the invitation became the focus of attention of all parties, because although the date of the July 11 meeting was set, some of the invited objects were d "to be determined" by the organizers. It is not clear whether to invite AA, TNLA MNDAA, the organisers said. The author thinks that the organizers' form is for the military the Chinese side to see, it is a helpless move. Because, an active advocate "all inclusive" the organizer of the Congress, it is difficult to say "do not invite an organization" such self-talk words. It is clear that the disapproval of the invitation to AA, TNLA MNDAA is a hard-line stance from the military. The military's adherence to this position is well known, the convening of the second meeting of the Binglong Conference, at which time the three NWOs excluded by the military were able to attend, was achieved through the strong mediation of the Chinese side. This is why the author said that the position of the organizers is for the Chinese side to see. If China is as active as last time in promoting peace walking, then the participation of three organizations, namely AA, TNLA MNDAA, is almost certain. On the contrary, if China's attitude towards the New Binglong meeting in Myanmar is allowed to go unchecked, then the three organizations will have no possibility of participating in the meeting. In addition, such a statement by the organizers is a great test for the FPNCC, because the principle at the beginning of the FPNCC's establishment was that seven member organizations would advance retreat together. Now it is faced with the distinction between the NLD government the military, participate in the meeting, or do not participate in the meeting. It's a dilemma. Accept the invitation, is equivalent to self-destruct FPNCC principle, refuse to participate in the meeting, then their own organization will be listed as uninformed Myanmar. This is sometimes the case in political struggle. In many cases, we must not oppose it for the sake of opposition insist on it for the sake of persistence. Although there is no hope that the third Binglong Conference will solve substantive issues, the question of whether or not to hold a meeting whether to participate in it will be regarded as a political outcome. Therefore, whether it is opposition or insistence, the intention is nothing more than to express certain positions attitudes which, in turn, are related to political principles political integrity. As a result, insistence that seems irrelevant to outsiders has become an important political choice. The attitude of the Myanmar military is to resolutely refrain from any form of recognition of the legitimacy of AA, TNLA MNDAA, but the attitude of the NLD the majority of the government parties wants to take the step of national reconciliation through full inclusion. The fact that the military is still unwilling to open the door to the peace process for the three organizations is clear to those who are truly obstructing the peace process, that is the crux of the problem of defusing the armed conflict, because, Sooner or later, Tatmadaw troops who have no intention of negotiating peace will have to fight for their so-called "clear-down" campaign. On June 25, the European Union issued a list of sanctions against the Tatmadaw army, including such senior officials as the Director of Special Operations Bureau No. 3, Aung Kyaw Soo, the commander of the Western military region, Maung Maung Soo, the commander of the 99th Division, the commander of the 33rd Division, the commander of the 15th Field Brigade, Chin Maung Soo. The Burmese side responded quickly by expelling the commander of the western military region, Maung Maung so, who was ordered to carry out the Rakhine campaign. However, some people do not buy such a "treatment". On 27 June, an organization called Amnesty International (AI) called for sanctions against 12 senior Burmese military police officials, led by Tatmadaw Commander-in-Chief Min Aung Lay, who were involved in Rakhine State affairs. It is worth noting that on the issue of human rights in Myanmar, the United Nations Myanmar have entered a relatively practical stage of operation from the initial "mouth gun". The United Nations Human Rights Council meeting, which began on 18 June in Geneva, focused on the investigation prosecution of those responsible for violations of human rights law humanitarian law committed by the Myanmar military, which is scheduled to end on 6 July, It does not rule out a series of tougher sanctions across the country in the near future. At that time, on the eve of the New Binglong Conference, it was undoubtedly fuelling the fire for Myanmar, which was in the midst of a troubled autumn. If the oil is poured well, it could force the Burmese military to make a major reversal, or, It is not known that the fire was used to set an end to the chaos in Burma from within the Tatmadaw.